Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Have you ever read such a disclaimer on say…I don’t know…every single financial and investment website in existence? Some take this to mean that the past is almost worthless and can teach you nothing. But that conclusion would be wrong…dead wrong.
The past is a wealth of knowledge – both of dazzling successes and atrocious mistakes. Analyzing our past is how we learn to improve. Take the following saying for instance…
Red sky at night, sailors delight. Red sky at morning, sailors take warning.
Why do many use this rule of thumb? Because it works. Some sailor noticed that red skies in the evening have historically led to good weather the following morning. He maybe asked around to his pirate buddies and we have an age-old backtest. Is it always correct? No. Will this always hold true? Who know. But to ignore the past is to burn history books and to doom ourselves to making the same mistakes over and over without ever learning anything.
What To Expect
I am dedicating this blog to you, the do-it-yourself investor. What will you find in upcoming posts? Here is just a sample of what to expect:
- market-timing techniques
- pairs trading
- smallcap strategies with mind-blowing returns
- tricks, techniques and tips to increase returns and decrease losses
- dividend strategies
- myth-busting the entire stock market
I am excited and eager to write about these posts just as I am sure you are ready to get started. But before we do, there is some quasi-boring essentials we need to cover.
How To Git Er Done
Over the course of many months I will be giving you the goods through this blog. You will learn principles that you can use with virtually any screener. But to make this very simple for you, I will also share the actual screens that I write about. You will be able to use, copy, alter and save them as your own.
The stock screening and backtesting platform that I use is Portfolio123. It is an amazing platform. If you use the link I have provided to sign-up, the following will happen:
- You can freely trial the software for 30 days instead of 15
- I will get a small commission which will inspire me to keep on writing for you
- I can share my stock screens with you freely
- Rainbows will shine brighter and your breath will always smell minty fresh
Well, almost all of those will happen. But you still should brush your teeth every once in a while. Also, if the link doesn’t work for some reason, you can also put the code HKURTIS into the invitation code box. You’ll know when you see it.
Signing Up With Portfolio123
When you sign up with Portfolio123, which of their many subscriptions should you choose?
The Investor subscription is really there to give access to other user created models which you have to pay monthly fees for. Not a good choice if you are a do-it-yourself investor. The Screener subscription lets you backtest strategies starting in 1999 and has all the features we will be using in this blog. The Designer and Manager subscriptions are for people who develop strategies and want to license them to other people in the P123 marketplace. These top-tier subs are also useful a year or two down the road when you have a gazillion screens and are ready to use the higher-end tools to tweak actual portfolios. But don’t over-spend at the beginning since there is a learning curve to using the platform and you likely will not fully use any manager-like tool or function at the start.
Enough with the boring particulars except for one other detail. You will need to largely learn the mechanics of Portfolio123 through the tutorials and guides on the website. My blog is not for Portfolio123 support although I am here to help. My goal is to help you be the best and smartest investor you can in the shortest amount of time. And hopefully when you take Warren Buffett out for supper in the future you as he offers to invest his fortune in your rocketing portfolio, you will remember who helped you way back when (ahem ahem).
This post if far too long already. Onward and forward with Backtest Investing where history will become our best teacher.